Profits Postponed: Here’s Your New SLV Gameplan
New SLV Trade Recommendation
At the beginning of the month, we rolled our iShares Silver Trust (NYSEARCA:SLV) $26 calls from June to July.
Now, our current July $26 calls are at a pretty steep loss. If you’ve been keeping up with the Profit Takeover portfolio, then that’s not a surprise.
But what went wrong?
Well, if I’m being frank, we simply ran out of time.
The Fed meeting threw a bit of a wrench in this trade. But the story behind the trade? That’s still strong.
IV is incredibly low – the lowest it’s been in the past year, in fact. Just check out this chart of the CBOE Silver ETF Volatility Index (INDEXCBOE:VXSLV):
VXSLV YTD, courtesy of Google Finance
Remember – when IV is low, option premium is cheap, meaning you want to be a buyer, not a seller.
I still see a rally coming for SLV. And we aren’t going to miss it.
So, we’re rolling this trade into August.
Buy-to-Open the SLV August 20, 2021 $25 calls for $0.65 or less.
Precious metals are oversold – but we’re going to see these names flip around in our favor before summer’s over.
You can track this trade in the Profit Takeover portfolio right here.
But it’s not the only trade I’m dropping this week…
LIVE Oil Trade: Dropping Wednesday at 10:30 AM
I’m going live every week for Profit Takeover members – and on Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. ET, we’re talking all-things-oil.
Oil prices are skyrocketing. And they’re pulling the entire oil and energy sector up with them.
But there are certain stocks in particular that will outperform the rest. And on Wednesday, I’ll give you my top oil trade.
You can tune in right here at 10:30 am sharp on Wednesday, June 30 to get these trade details live.
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VIX Traffic Light
As we head into a holiday week, I’m keeping a close eye on the VIX light.
Why? Well, Sunday marks the moment I’ve been waiting for… the Fourth of July.
And no, I’m not talking about barbecuing or watching fireworks with my family – although I’m definitely looking forward to that.
I’m talking about the VIX falling below 15… and maybe even getting into the low 14s – turning our VIX light to a bright red.
What can you expect as the VIX falls? And how can you trade it?
Volatility is falling off, and as we head into the holiday weekend we’re going to see some real compression.
You know the weekend effect? I’m going to tell you more and more about it as we head into this weekend. But know this – the VIX tends to fall as people log off for the weekend. And the same goes for a holiday weekend. In fact, holidays like the Fourth tend to set off patriotic rallies in the market – and send the VIX plummeting.
In addition, the VIX futures curve, which tells us about market expectations for the S&P, is in a nice contango:
And as the VIX drops, I wouldn’t be surprised to see 4,300 or higher on the S&P by Friday.
Mark’s Watchlist
We’re kicking off the week with five names on today’s Watchlist. And I’m even giving a trade idea on two of them.
Want to know how to profit on these names?
- Apple Inc. (Nasdaq:AAPL)
Apple is everyone’s favorite stock, right? It’s widely held, always actively trading, and often finds itself at the top of the market day after day. But we don’t typically see an influx of institutional plays into this big-tech name – so, when we do, it means something big is coming.
On Friday, someone bought 10K contracts of the AAPL July 16 $135 calls… and the AAPL July 16 $135 puts:
This is a strategy called a straddle, and essentially means that the buyer is looking for a big move away from $135 by next month.
Now, I’m willing to bet that this is a bullish play. Volatility is low in AAPL, and options are cheap right now. This is a nice play if AAPL makes a run at $140 – but you don’t need a straddle to profit.
An easier way to play a bullish move in AAPL? The July 23 $135 calls. They’re only about $1.85 and are a great way to hop on the excitement of AAPL’s earnings call on July 29.
- Xerox Holdings Corp. (NYSE:XRX)
It’s been quite some time since I was photocopying body parts – but XRX is back on my radar today.
Why? Well, because there’s more big money flowing into this stock.
Someone bought 8,310 contracts of the October 15 $27 calls. And get this – the trade is under $1 at $0.80 per contract.
That makes this a great big-money bullish trade to piggy-back.
- Ford Motor Co. (NYSE:F)
It feels like the moment we stopped talking about F, it started rallying.
Now, this name is down this morning. But I’m still bullish on F long-term – and I think this is a name we could see moving higher soon.
- Walt Disney Co. (NYSE:DIS)
It’s been a rough month for DIS, down 3.5% at one point in mid-June. But it’s rebounding. And right now, it’s fighting to pass above its 50-day moving average.
If that happens, then I think $185 is in the cards for this new name and old name stock.
- Transocean LTD (NYSE:RIG)
That’s right – I’m still watching RIG. As oil rallies, this company is taking huge relief on its debt. And I see this name heading to $5 or $6 as oil continues climbing higher.
Want to know more about my top oil trades? Then be sure to tune in right here on Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. ET for my exclusive oil-themed livestream.
Today’s Impact Money Trade
Speaking of oil – RIG just got its own influx of big money.
In fact, it’s home to the top options trade among all equities right now:
Click To Enlarge
As you can see, we’ve got someone buying-to-open 25K contracts of the November $6 calls.
Clearly, we aren’t the only ones betting on a RIG rally to six bucks as oil prices climb.
And a big-money trade like this is good news for that bet.
I’m talking all about the oil rally in Wednesday’s livestream… plus, revealing my top oil trade so you can profit just like this big buyer will.
You don’t need the funds for 25,000 contracts to score big on oil. And on Wednesday, I’ll prove it.
Bookmark this page – it’s where I’ll be live at 10:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday, June 30.
Until next time,
Mark Sebastian
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June 28 2021
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