The Truth About Losing Trades
Coach Brian King: Live & in Action
Together, Brian and I talked about losing trades.
The truth of the matter is that no one wins every trade. Anyone who tells you that is either stupid… or lying.
And I want to be as honest as possible with you all here at the Profit Takeover.
The first two trades I recommended to the Profit Revolution, in fact, were losers. And I’m not hiding that.
Why? Because those losers were able to turn our portfolio in the winner it is today. Just ask Big Cap!
And that’s exactly what Brian and I talked about.
You can watch a replay of today’s live session with Brian below:
And if you’re interested in joining Brian and me in the Profit Revolution, you can click here to learn more – or give my team a call at 877.212.9163.
This Market Is 10X Equities
- iShares 20 Plus Year Treasury Bond ETF (Nasdaq:TLT)
Bonds may not be exciting – but they’re important. The bond market is about 10X the size of the equity market. If bonds sneeze, then stocks can get a cold. I wouldn’t recommend ignoring them.
And frankly, they’re making a move that’s near impossible to ignore. Look – inflation is at insane highs right now. The CPI is at 6.2%. Yet, bonds are rallying.
Look how TLT has risen in the past month:
TLT Oct 12- Nov 12
A good friend of mine – and a bond trader at Bear Sterns – actually came on my Profit Revolution lifetime show yesterday to talk about how to trade the rising bond market.
Keep an eye on your inbox… you might just see a replay of that session soon!
- Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. (NYSE:BXMT)
The implied volatility is really inexpensive on this mortgage trust – which is interesting considering how nice its chart looks:
BXMT has been steadily rising since the beginning of October. And I can’t ignore the cheap option prices.
The December 17 $34 calls are only $0.65 – and when you look at how cheap the IV is, you know that’s a smart play.
Close & Roll, Boys – Close & Roll
This customer was long the FCX December 17, 2021 $38-$45 call spread, sold it for a $2.89 profit, and then rolled $2.24 of that into the January $41-$49 call spread.
We’re looking at an overtly bullish trade here – and it’s coming from a customer who was right, which is the exact type of paper that I like to piggyback.
With inflation and the housing demand so high, mining stocks like FCX should do really well. And the January 2022 $42 calls are going for $2.95.
This big-money trade is looking for a run to $50 by January. And if that happens, then this call will double.
Now, I’m not done yet. I hadn’t even heard of our next stock until this 14-month 13-point call spread hit my radar on biotech Amyris Inc. (Nasdaq:AMRS):
We’re looking at the January 2023 $7-$20 call spread for $2.60 here. This is super bullish, and it’s looking for a big rebound in AMRS.
Why did they go all the way out to 2023? Well, they’re looking for time.
I’m not necessarily interested on going that far out. But AMRS did get crushed, and I think it’s worth a dead-cat bounce:
AMRS Oct 26-Nov 12
How do you play it? Well, with the December $8 calls – they’re only 65 cents!
Bye, Bye Selling
VIX 11/11/21: Yahoo!Finance
At this point, I think it’s safe to say we’re done with the selling – at least through Monday.
I expect the VIX to drop another point today, sending us below 17 to finish out the week. There’s not a short-term sell button being pushed on the market anymore.
Volatility is declining – and my VIX light continues to be red.
Have a great weekend, folks. I’ll be with you bright and early on Monday for Money Morning LIVE!
Until then,
Mark Sebastian
Founder, Profit Takeover
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November 12 2021
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