Yesterday, the market chopped around before the Fed meeting, then once Powell made his announcement we saw a huge drop.

There are some signs that the market won’t stay down for long…

There’s one indicator that I am watching every single day, and you should too. 

In the short term, it has been showing some bearish signals.

While it’s not identical to the market, you can’t mistake the similarities in this tech stock…

Compare this AAPL – Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) chart to the one below in SPY:

Image from

SPY – SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) plummeted from about 388 down to just under 375 in about 2 hours… then slowly dripped down to 374 by the close.

Image from

The VIX (INDEXCBOE:VIX)the CBOE’s Volatility Index, measures the market’s expectation of volatility, and we saw a massive dip into the Fed meeting yesterday.

VIX fell from 26.43 to 25.76 in 15 minutes before 2:00 p.m. (ET), rose back to 26.87 this morning, and it is sitting right at 25.36 as I write this.

Image from Yahoo Finance 

What this is telling me is that investors weren’t surprised by the Fed announcement and the market could recover what it lost in the longer term.

We all guessed that the market would be down again today, but people aren’t afraid of what’s coming next. 

AAPL is one of the biggest stocks that I use as an indicator of overall market movement, because as AAPL goes, so goes the market.

While it’s not exactly the same, AAPL’s movements do strongly correlate positively with the market’s overall changes.

So, short term, I am looking to short AAPL… But I think things will turn around in the market as soon as we see some major put selling in AAPL. 

Until next time,

Mark Sebastian


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